Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
